Padres go for sweep of LA

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres were in serious danger of falling out of first place in the National League's West Division, but a couple of games against the fading Los Angeles Dodgers seems to have gotten the surprising squad back on track. The division leaders will try for a three-game sweep of this late-season set when the two rivals square off again this evening at Petco Park.

San Diego had seen its once-commanding lead atop the NL West shrink to only one game after losing 10 straight contests heading into this series, but has been able to rebound somewhat by earning a pair of wins over the Dodgers this week. The Padres remained just one game up on hard-charging San Francisco, though, after the Giants defeated Arizona on Tuesday.

Following tonight's tilt, the Padres will host San Francisco in a critical four-game series beginning on Thursday.

San Diego prevailed last night behind another outstanding effort from Mat Latos, with the young hurler firing seven outstanding innings to lead the way in a 2-1 decision.

Latos (14-5) yielded just one run and four hits in addition to racking up 10 strikeouts and setting a new Major League record in the process. The 22-year- old became the first pitcher in history to allow two runs or less while lasting at least five innings in 15 consecutive starts.

"I didn't know about [the record]," said Latos afterward. "It's great to be able to set a record, but my career's not going to be defined as setting one record. My career's going to be defined on my reliability."

Aaron Cunningham and Adrian Gonzalez each knocked in runs to give Latos all the support he would need, while All-Star closer Heath Bell finished off the victory by recording the game's final five outs for his 39th save of the year.

Latos outdueled Dodgers youngster Clayton Kershaw (11-10), who permitted just two runs on five hits and struck out six over seven innings in a tough-luck result.

Los Angeles mustered just five hits in suffering its fourth straight loss and eighth setback in its last 10 games. The two-time defending NL West champions are now one game under .500 (69-70) for the season and 10 behind the Padres in the standings.

"I don't know how many clubs look good losing," said Dodgers manager Joe Torre. "It's been the same situation -- we've had trouble through the middle of our batting order putting anything together offensively."

The Dodgers will be trying to prevent matching their longest losing skid of the season and hope to break out against untested Padres pitcher Cory Luebke. The rookie makes his second major league start this evening since being called up from Triple-A Portland when rosters expanded in September.

Luebke was hurt by the long ball in his big league debut, serving up a pair of two-run homers in five innings of work in a 4-3 loss to Colorado on Friday. The left-hander gave up five hits in all and walked two while striking out three.

The 25-year-old, a supplemental first-round selection by San Diego in the 2007 draft, went a combined 10-1 with a 2.68 earned run average in 19 games (17 starts) between Portland and Double-A San Antonio prior to his promotion.

Luebke will be opposed tonight by Chad Billingsley, a pitcher who's enjoyed plenty of success when facing the Padres in the past. The Dodgers' right- hander owns a 10-5 record along with an excellent 2.48 ERA over 21 career meetings (17 starts) with San Diego and has flourished at Petco Park, where he's gone 5-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 13 career visits (nine starts).

Billingsley threw six shutout innings to defeat the Padres in San Diego on July 27, but did take a loss against the Friars in Los Angeles on August 5 after surrendering three runs in another six-inning stint. He's 2-1 with a splendid 1.40 ERA in three encounters with San Diego this season, with both victories taking place at Petco Park.

The 26-year-old is coming off an outstanding effort in his most recent start as well, limiting San Francisco to two unearned runs and just two hits while fanning seven over eight sharp innings on Friday. The performance improved Billingsley to 11-8 with a 3.54 ERA in 26 mound trips this season.

These two NL West foes have split 14 meetings so far this season, as well as eight bouts held in San Diego in 2010.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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